What is Opinion Trading?

Knowledge Is Power

Opinion trading involves trading on future outcomes of events. This is enabled by prediction markets, where many buyers and sellers trade opinions on various topics. For example, if you are a sports enthusiast, you could trade the opinion on whether England will win the FIFA World Cup.

You can buy ‘yes/no’ opinions to questions such as whether the price of one share of a company will touch Rs. 1670 by the end of a month. Each of these yes/no event contracts trades for a price. You can buy these depending on your opinion. If your prediction is right, you make Rs10 for every correct event share you own.

Based on your analysis of events around the topic, you can safeguard your profits either by exiting the market early at the current price or by waiting for the market to resolve (in this case, the end of 2022).

What are the legal concerns around it?

Opinion trading is different from betting as it involves knowledge & analysis of events and probabilities. There are no laws prohibiting opinion trading and prediction markets as per ICT law of NEPAL https://doit.gov.np/en/resources/1 

What are the current companies in opinion trading?

in Nepal, Tradetoli

In India, TradeX is one of the many platforms.

In the US, there are Kalshi and Polymarket.

It is a new age concept with few pioneers right now.

What is the future of opinion trading?

Prediction markets are set to become the next big thing. They have the potential to become the new age social media, popularized by early adopters. Opinion trades reward knowledge of events and analytical skills. They monetize good judgement. They enable people to see the reasons behind both aspects of arguments.

In the longer run, prediction markets will become barometers of public opinion. They will enable businesses and politicians to see their initiatives' popularity empirically.

Conclusion

Opinion trading will harness the power of opinionated common people. It is a tool of the future, where it pays to forecast it right. It is time now to monetize the #WisdomOfTheCrowds and trade now!